In 2022, the real estate market continued to have hiking home prices with a decrease in home sales, especially towards the end of the year as interest increased. According to The Canadian Real Estate Association, starting in November 2022, there was a 3.3% month-over-month decline in national home sales. Compared to 2022’s peak in February with an average of $816,720, the national average home price in November 2022 was $632,802 which is a 22.5% decrease. The amount of newly listed properties have also declined by an average of 1.3% month-over-month in November, with larger declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions. November 2022 marked the lowest number of new listings in a month in 17 years.

With the current inflation rates in Canada, it has forced interest rates to increase as well. The Bank of Canada kept raising rates aggressively in 2022, with a 100-basis point hike in July. This month’s hike marks the 8th time the Bank raised rates since March 2022. As of Jan 25, 2023, the overnight rate stands at 4.5%.

Will home prices drop in 2023 and bottom out?

While Canadians will still likely continue to struggle with inflation in 2023, RE/MAX anticipates that 60% of housing markets will see more balanced conditions, meaning the supply and demand for housing will be more even compared to 2022. This is expected to be more apparent during the third and fourth quarters of 2023, especially in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Mississauga, Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Calgary, Regina, and Winnipeg. The largest price declines are forecasted to be in Ontario and Western Canada where several cities can see a 10-15% decline. However, Atlantic regions such as Halifax and St. John’s are expected to see an 8% and 4% increase in home prices respectively.  TD bank predicts that Canadian home sales will bottom in early 2023.

Despite the 2023 housing market predictions, Vancouver is still anticipated to be the most expensive region, averaging a home price of $1.2 million. On the other hand, Regina will have the most affordable prices with an average of $361,495 by the end of 2023. Royal Lepage notes home prices have declined from the highs earlier last year, but are still higher than pre-pandemic. The projected average home price in Canada for Q4 2023 is estimated to be 15% higher than Q4 2020 and 18.4% higher than Q4 2019.

Although house prices will fall, rents are projected to rise as there was a lack of rental listings. In 2022, the average price of a single bedroom apartment in Toronto is now $2481 a month which has increased 20% year-over-year. The hike in rental prices is mainly because listings have gone down 25.6%, causing there to be a lack of supply. However, due to such high prices, most Canadians cannot afford to buy a house and hence, there are more renters than homeowners. This is prominent in cities such as Montreal, Quebec City, and Halifax as more than 50% of the buildings built since 2016 are rented. From a survey conducted by RE/MAX, 15% of Canadians are debating about moving to a different province for better housing availability and livability.

Will there be New Regulations in 2023?

The Government of Canada can see how inflation has caused houses to be less affordable for Canadians so they have taken new measures to counteract the problem.

To make homes more affordable to Canadians, the Government of Canada has passed the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act which came into effect on January 1, 2023. This Act prevents non-Canadians or corporations that are not incorporated in Canada, from buying residential property for 2 years beginning on January 1, 2023. According to the Government of Canada, residential property is defined as a building with 3 homes or less and parts of buildings such as a semi-detached house or a condominium unit. If this law is violated, the non-Canadian or anyone who intentionally assists a non-Canadian, will receive a $10,000 fine and the court may request the sale of the house. This new regulation can help make sure that homes are being used by Canadians to live in and not as assets for foreign investors.

For foreigners who already own a house in Canada, they will need to pay a 1% vacant home tax annually if the home is underused. This measure is to ensure that non-Canadians pay their fair share of Canadian tax and in hopes that this will free up more homes for Canadians.

The last measure is to add Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax (GST/HST) on all houses that are resold before it has been built or lived in. This was effective as of May 7, 2022 and can help reduce homes being sold for high prices.

All three regulations are made for the same purpose – to make homes more affordable and increase the number of Canadian homeowners.

Housing Market 2023 Predictions

As 2022 was still a year of hiking home prices, the Government of Canada is taking measures to help Canadians become homeowners at more affordable prices. Although interest rates are expected to remain the same, house prices are forecasted to decrease in many regions. Based on the trends, 2023 is predicted to be a year with a more balanced market.

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An economic downturn could stress you out if you’re selling your home. A contracting and uncertain economy doesn’t usually yield top dollar for home sales.

At RankMyAgent, we aim to make the home selling process more manageable. So this article explains what a recession entails and tips to sell your home for the best price during a recessionary environment.

What is a Recession?

The traditional definition of a recession refers to two consecutive quarters (three-month periods — so two consecutive quarters equal six consecutive months) of declining Gross Domestic Product (GDP). But this definition comes with numerous asterisks.

Even if Canada faces two declining quarters, we may not be in a recession. We continue to face record-low unemployment rates, and in a recession, unemployment peaks.

A recession depends on numerous factors like employment, consumer spending, and GDP. An “official” recession usually occurs once a group of leading economists looks at these factors and determines we’re in a recession.

What Can We Expect During a Recession?

A recession’s outcomes and contributing factors are a “Catch-22” — i.e., the presence of the factors indicates a recession, but the same circumstances also result from an economic downturn.

We usually see the following during a decline:

• Layoffs: Businesses fear the unknown and want to reduce spending when the economy begins to tumble. You can expect layoffs in business departments that aren’t critical or where companies previously overhired.
• Less consumer spending: People are also fearful when we hit a recession. We’re scared of losing our jobs or taking a loss in the stock market. As a result, we might spend less and save more of our income for a rainy day.
• Depressed stock market: Investors may sell their stocks and choose safer investments. So, you can expect stock prices to decline. Some corporations also don’t fare well during a recession, and their stock price reflects that.
• Higher interest rates: This isn’t true for all recessions. But in our case, a recession may be caused due to the Bank of Canada increasing borrowing rates to tamp down inflation. This would make buying a home and making mortgage payments more expensive.

These factors can turn the residential home market in favour of the buyer. We’re more cautious about making significant financial decisions in a recession. We’re also unsure whether we can hold our job or afford increasing interest rates.

As a result, there are fewer buyers on the market. We might wait until economic conditions are more positive and confident before applying for a mortgage and making the largest purchase of our life.

But the number of sellers remains the same or even increases during this time. Some Canadians may need to sell their second home to cover costs or downsize to afford their mortgage in a poor economic environment.

Tips for Selling Your Home During a Recession in Canada

1. Rethink if You Need to Sell

Housing prices tend to peak before an economic decline and slide once a recession becomes a reality.

Selling in the middle of the downturn might not bring you the best price. Downturns tend to be buyer markets, where homebuyers have more leverage. You won’t likely have the same bidding wars or unconditional offers we saw a year ago.

Sometimes, you might not need to sell an investment property or move into a larger home right now. It’s best to consider whether entering the real estate market is required.

2. Sell Sooner Rather than Later

Past recessions show a history of dipping home prices. If you plan to sell in the near future, it’s better to do it as soon as possible. You’re only going to face tougher selling conditions.

Otherwise, you should wait until the economy is more positive before you sell. Home prices tend to fare better when there’s financial prosperity among Canadians.

3. Don’t Overprice Your Home

You might be used to seeing bidding wars and homes selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking. But the market right now might not have the same prospects. You should temper your expectations to something reasonable.

Working with a real estate agent can help you set a reasonable selling price. Additionally, a realtor can guide you towards getting the best dollar for your property. They might suggest minor renovations or staging to bedazzle the prospects.

4. Give Your Home Some Minor Renovation

Minor renovations, deep cleanings, and restoring curb appeal can help move your home on the market. These changes make your home shine in photos and showings.

You don’t need to overhaul your entire kitchen. It may not be worth it in the current environment since labour is in short supply — contractors aren’t as open to negotiations or discounts. At the same time, home prices are going down.

Contributing your own labour by refreshing walls with a coat of paint or deep cleaning your carpets may be what you need to increase your chances of selling. A clean and refreshed home can help potential homebuyers envision themselves living there.

5. Consider Renting your Property Out Instead

Cities like Toronto and Vancouver are seeing record-high rent prices because surging interest rates have left prospective buyers unable to purchase a home — therefore, many Canadians continue to rent.

Some sellers who aren’t getting the offers they hoped for have turned to the rental market because the sky-high rent prices make being a landlord much more appealing.

If you aren’t in a rush to sell, renting out your property until better economic conditions might be an option to get the best return on investment from your property.

Recessions don’t have to be scary. Yes, there’s a fear of layoffs and depressed stock prices, but things rebound eventually. If you’re planning to sell your home during a recession, it’s vital to temper expectations. You can’t expect your home to sell for the same amount that homes sold for during a growing economy.

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